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Bank Of England Holds Rates At 3.75% In Split Vote As Inflation Risks Rise

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, but the decision was not unanimous. In a 6-3 vote, the Monetary Policy Committee kept rates unchanged, while three members backed a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. Renewed energy price pressures have added to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

Inflation Pressures Remain

Policymakers said inflation “is likely to rise further over coming quarters,” citing higher and more volatile crude oil and refined energy prices since the conflict began.

So far, there has been “little evidence” of significant second-round effects, such as broader wage and price increases. Inflation risks, however, are now “tilted to the upside” and have increased since the July Monetary Policy Report.

Energy Prices Add To Inflation Risks

Brent crude has risen 36% since July, reaching $106 a barrel on Sept. 14, while UK wholesale gas prices increased 78% to 207 pence per therm.

Higher energy costs can feed into transport, production and household expenses, raising costs across supply chains. Refinery pressures have also pushed crack spreads, the difference between refined fuel and crude prices, well above pre-conflict levels.

Economy Shows Resilience

Despite the inflation risks, UK economic activity has held up slightly better than the Bank expected. A softer labor market and higher borrowing costs are expected to help reduce inflation over time.

Previous monetary tightening is still working through the economy, according to policymakers. So far, the latest energy shock has not produced clear evidence of a broader wage-price spiral.

Major Central Banks Take Different Paths

The decision comes during a busy period for global monetary policy. The Federal Reserve raised rates Wednesday to 3.75%-4% in its first increase since 2023, while the European Central Bank recently lifted its deposit rate to 2.5%.

The Bank of Japan is due to announce its decision Friday, with markets expecting a rate increase. Thursday’s split vote shows that pressure for tighter policy remains within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

More Than 1.5 Billion People Faced Dangerous Heat This Summer

More than 1.5 billion people were exposed to dangerous levels of heat this summer, according to a global analysis by nonprofit Climate Central.

The study found that Europe experienced the most unusual heat during June-August 2026, with nearly nine in 10 Europeans exposed to at least one month of what researchers classify as “risky heat.”

Europe Emerged As The World’s Hottest Region

Climate Central defines risky heat as temperatures above 90% of local temperatures recorded between 1991 and 2020 for the same period. Researchers use the threshold to identify temperatures at which health risks begin to increase.

Across the world, people in 203 countries experienced at least 30 days of risky heat. In 54 countries, June-August 2026 was the hottest such period on record, while seven of the 10 countries with the largest temperature anomalies were in Europe.

France recorded the largest national temperature anomaly, at 3.5C above its historical average.

“Whether it’s nine in 10 Europeans enduring risky heat, hundreds of millions impacted across Asia and Africa, or relentless record-breaking temperatures in North America, human-driven warming is pushing communities beyond safe physical limits,” said Kristina Dahl of Climate Central.

She said the summer’s heat should be viewed in terms of its immediate effects on health systems, labor productivity, infrastructure and household finances.

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), who was not involved in the study, said the findings show the rising costs of climate change linked to fossil fuel use.

Clean Energy Faces Rising Demand

Europe’s extreme summer was part of a broader trend that scientists say would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change. Earlier this month, the United Nations said limiting warming to 1.5C is no longer achievable under current conditions.

The latest United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) outlook projects 1.8C of warming in the best-case scenario and more than 2C in less favorable cases. UNEP now describes the likely pathway as “overshoot, peak and decline.”

Renewable energy is central to limiting that overshoot. Renewables generated almost 34% of global electricity in 2025, but UNEP says the share would need to reach 60%-70% by 2030 under a limited-overshoot pathway.

In the European Union, wind and solar generated more electricity than fossil fuels for the first time last year. SolarPower Europe estimates that solar generation has saved the bloc €33.8 billion in avoided gas imports since the start of the war on Iran.

Power Grids Struggle With Growing Demand

Investment in clean energy has reached about $1.9 trillion annually, but renewable generation is meeting only around 40% of the increase in electricity demand. Air conditioning and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence are contributing to that growth.

According to the International Energy Agency, data center electricity use increased 17% in 2025, reaching roughly 1.5%-2% of global electricity demand. That figure is expected to double by 2030.

Europe’s aging power grids are also struggling to integrate growing amounts of renewable generation, leaving some solar and wind capacity unused. Battery storage can help reduce those bottlenecks, but investment has not kept pace with the scale of the challenge.

This summer’s heat is adding pressure on governments, businesses and infrastructure systems to adapt to higher temperatures while expanding low-carbon energy capacity.

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