The Trump administration has begun drafting a postwar Middle East strategy aimed at recalibrating the regional balance of power by increasing pressure on Tehran and expanding normalization between Israel and its neighbors, Axios reported, citing two US officials and two other people familiar with the discussions.

Still in its early stages, the plan could become the Trump White House’s guiding Middle East policy for the remainder of the president’s term.

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Three Pillars Of The Emerging Plan

According to sources cited by Axios, the strategy rests on three pillars: building what officials call a “regional alignment” among US partners to deter and constrain Iran; addressing the fallout from Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel; and expanding the Abraham Accords while pursuing possible normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Discussions have also examined whether the United States could guarantee the regional alignment, whether Washington should pursue a security arrangement between Israel and Syria, and how to advance the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan.

A Familiar Strategy, But With A More Structured Design

A regional alignment would not represent a major break with previous US policy. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, successive administrations have sought to curb Tehran’s influence by deepening ties with Gulf Arab states and strengthening regional security cooperation.

What appears different is the effort to turn those policies into a more formal framework, with closer defense coordination and security integration among US allies. According to the report, that push is taking shape alongside a broader shift in the regional balance of power following the Iran war.

Saudi Arabia Remains The Key Diplomatic Prize

For Washington, normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has long been a diplomatic objective, but efforts have repeatedly stalled. Riyadh has said formal relations must be linked to meaningful progress on Gaza and the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The effort builds on the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 during Trump’s first term. The agreements normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, and have since been viewed by US policymakers as a tool for reshaping regional alliances and reducing Iran’s influence.

Gaza, Syria And Lebanon Form The Other Front

Another major pillar focuses on the consequences of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and the war in Gaza. That effort could take three forms.

First, the administration could move to the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, previously reported to include reconstruction arrangements, the disarmament of Hamas and a transitional governing authority.

Second, Washington could seek a security agreement between Israel and Syria. Syria’s political landscape has changed significantly since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the end of 2024, with the new authorities seeking to redefine the country’s regional and international relationships.

Third, the plan could involve an agreement between Israel and Lebanon to limit Hezbollah’s military capabilities. That effort is tied to the 2024 ceasefire, which required Hezbollah fighters to withdraw north of the Litani River and the Lebanese army to deploy in southern Lebanon.

Israel has since accused Hezbollah of rebuilding its military infrastructure, while Lebanon continues to report Israeli air strikes on its territory.

Not Yet A Finished Strategy

Despite the broad contours taking shape, the plan remains far from complete. One source told Axios that the administration’s thinking is still being developed.

“They are cooking it, but it is not yet cooked,” the source said. “The idea is to tie a whole lot of things in the region together — how you create a regional alignment after the war. It is still unclear if all U.S. allies in the region will be on board.”

Timing could also be shaped by the upcoming US midterm elections and Israel’s October legislative elections, both of which could alter the political environment surrounding the proposal.