Global recorded-music retail sales are projected to reach $48.3 billion in 2026, marking a 12th consecutive year of growth, according to forecasts from research firm Omdia.
Streaming Remains The Main Growth Driver
Omdia expects the market to surpass $50 billion in 2027 before reaching $56.8 billion by 2030.
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The forecast covers consumer spending on physical and digital music formats and services, as well as trade revenue from advertising, performance rights and synchronisation.
Subscription services, including Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube Music, are expected to remain the industry’s main source of growth. Subscription retail sales are projected to increase 7.2% to $30.5 billion in 2026 from $28.4 billion a year earlier and exceed $37 billion by 2030.
Physical Sales Continue To Grow
Advertising revenue is forecast to outpace physical music sales over the next five years, with compound annual growth rates of 4.3% and 3.4%, respectively.
Despite slower growth, physical formats are expected to remain the second-largest source of recorded-music revenue. Sales are projected to reach $8.3 billion by 2030, while combined audio and video advertising revenue is forecast to rise to $6.2 billion.
China Climbs The Global Rankings
China is expected to become the world’s second-largest recorded-music market by 2029 after overtaking the UK in 2028 and Japan a year later.
By 2030, the country is projected to account for 8.7% of global recorded-music retail revenue, up from 5.8% in 2025. The United States is expected to remain the largest market, although its share of global sales is forecast to decline from 40.3% to 38.4% over the same period.
Outlook
Simon Dyson, senior principal analyst at Omdia, said the forecasts point to continued momentum for the industry, with global retail sales expected to reach new record highs over the next five years.
He added that China becoming the world’s second-largest music market would mark a significant milestone, reflecting its growing contribution to the global music industry.







