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ECB Wage Tracker Signals Stable Wage Pressures And Moderate Growth Through 2026

The European Central Bank has published an updated wage tracker showing that negotiated wage pressures remain stable. Based on agreements signed through the end of May 2026, negotiated wage growth is expected to reach around 2.6% by December.

Quarterly And Yearly Dynamics

The headline indicator, which smooths one-off payments to reflect quarterly and monthly developments, points to wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. For 2026, average growth is estimated at 1.8% in the first quarter and 2.1% in the second quarter before accelerating to 2.6% in the final two quarters of the year.

Mechanical Effects And Forecast Nuances

According to the ECB, annual growth figures are still influenced by one-off payments made in 2024 but not repeated in 2025. Their impact is expected to gradually fade during 2026. Excluding the smoothing effect, the tracker points to negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Removing one-off payments altogether results in a decline from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, indicating slower growth in base wages.

Employee Coverage And Forward-Looking Projections

Coverage data currently available for 2026 shows that employees included in the tracker accounted for 46.4% in the first quarter. That share falls to 44.8% in the second quarter, 41.1% in the third quarter, and 40.4% in the final quarter of the year. The current release extends to December 2026. Additional collective agreements included in the July 2026 update are expected to expand the horizon to the first quarter of 2027.

Caveats And Broader Context

The ECB said the tracker is subject to revision and should not be viewed as a formal forecast. Instead, it reflects information available from active collective bargaining agreements. For a broader picture of wage developments across the euro area, the central bank referred to the June 2026 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections, which forecast compensation growth per employee of 3.2% in 2026.

Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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