Middle East Tensions Threaten Cyprus Trade And Growth Outlook

Geopolitical Uncertainty Overshadows Trade Balance Improvements

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to weigh on Cyprus’ external balance despite a strong increase in the country’s services surplus, according to a new analysis from Eurobank Research. The report showed that Cyprus’ services surplus increased from 23.5% of GDP in 2024 to 25.2% in 2025, driven largely by growth in tourism, financial services and intellectual property activities. At the same time, Eurobank Research warned that prolonged regional instability could offset part of those gains through weaker tourism demand, slower trade activity and higher energy costs.

Tourism And Transportation Under Pressure

Tourism remained one of the strongest contributors to economic growth in 2025. Visitors from the European Union accounted for 59.8% of the increase in arrivals, while Israeli travellers contributed 33.1% of the annual growth, according to the report. A slowdown in European economic activity, combined with geopolitical uncertainty in the region, could reduce tourism revenues and weaken travel demand over the coming months. Transportation services are also expected to face pressure from disruptions affecting shipping routes and global trade flows.

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Eurobank Research noted that heightened uncertainty could increase investor caution and reduce investment activity across several sectors. Despite current risks, Cyprus has historically benefited from periods of regional instability because it is often viewed as carrying lower geopolitical risk than neighbouring countries while maintaining relatively strong long-term economic prospects.

Energy Prices And Shifting Trade Dynamics

Another critical factor influencing the trade balance is the sharp rise in energy prices. Cyprus’s heavy reliance on heavy fuel oil and the inelastic nature of domestic energy demand create vulnerability. As outlined by Eurobank Research, higher energy costs have led to adverse effects on the goods balance. Moreover, the previously robust export performance of refined oil products witnessed in 2025 is unlikely to persist, leading to a subsequent weakness in both oil exports and imports.

The net outcome on the goods balance will depend on the elasticity of domestic energy consumption and export demand in response to price fluctuations. Additionally, the downturn in transportation activity may prompt asset sales in the maritime and aviation sectors in the latter half of the year, potentially supporting the goods balance.

Robust Performance In 2025 And Future Outlook

The strong services surplus recorded in 2025 reflected continued expansion across several key industries. Eurobank Research said surpluses linked to intellectual property, tourism and financial services reached 5.3%, 5.7% and 6.5% of GDP respectively, compared with 4.4%, 5.2% and 6.1% a year earlier. Transportation and other business services generated smaller surpluses at 2.1% of GDP.

ICT services, which played a major role in GDP growth between 2021 and 2025, maintained a high surplus level despite moderating growth dynamics. Tourism activity also remained strong throughout 2025, with arrivals surpassing 4.5 million and real tourism revenues exceeding €2.8 billion in 2015 prices. Recovery in financial services further reflected structural changes within the sector following mergers, acquisitions and successive sovereign credit rating upgrades that returned Cyprus to investment-grade A status in November 2024 after 13 years.

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What Cyprus Can Learn From Greece And Malta’s Growth Strategies

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

July 27, 2026

Across the Mediterranean, countries are increasingly competing not only for tourists but also for long-term residents, investment and skilled professionals. Greece and Malta have adopted different strategies to achieve that goal, offering two models that may hold lessons for Cyprus.

The shift comes as the traditional tourism model faces growing pressure. Climate change, overtourism and the rise of remote work have exposed the limitations of economies that depend heavily on peak summer demand. Increasingly, Mediterranean countries are looking for ways to extend tourism activity into year-round economic growth.

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Greece Stopped Selling Only The Summer

Greece offers one of the clearest examples of that transition. While its islands have long depended on July and August tourism, many have spent the past decade extending the season through infrastructure investment. Fibre connectivity has expanded to islands that once struggled with unreliable service, while ports have been upgraded with European recovery funding. On islands such as Naxos and Paros, the tourism season now stretches from Easter through November.

A longer season is also attracting more long-term visitors considering relocation rather than short holidays. Unlike tourists who leave after a week, residents contribute to the local economy throughout the year through housing, banking, education and everyday spending.

Athens has adjusted its policy framework accordingly. In 2024, it revised its residency-linked property investment rules, raising the investment threshold to €800,000 in high-demand areas including central Athens, Mykonos and Santorini, while maintaining a €400,000 threshold elsewhere. The objective was to redirect foreign investment toward regions with greater capacity while easing pressure on the country’s hottest property markets.

The policy has attracted attention for attempting to balance investment with concerns over housing affordability and the long-term sustainability of local communities.

Malta Turned Staying Into A Product

Malta has pursued a different strategy. Without Greece’s size or tourism volumes, it focused on attracting internationally mobile industries including financial services, iGaming and maritime registration. Competitive regulation and targeted policies helped establish the country as a base for those sectors.

The result has been a service-driven economy and one of the fastest-growing populations in the European Union, supported largely by international workers.

Alongside employment-based pathways, Malta also offers a residence programme for non-EU nationals combining a government contribution, a property purchase or long-term lease, and a philanthropic donation. Lower property thresholds in southern Malta and Gozo are intended to steer investment towards less-developed areas.

Whatever the broader debate surrounding such schemes, the policy reflects a consistent objective: converting foreign interest into long-term economic participation.

The Risks Of Success

Neither approach is without trade-offs. In Greece, Santorini has become a symbol of overtourism, with cruise arrivals placing increasing pressure on local infrastructure and prompting discussions over visitor limits. Rising demand for short-term rentals has also reduced housing availability for local residents in several destinations.

Malta faces different challenges. Rapid population growth has added pressure to infrastructure and housing, while the country has spent years rebuilding the reputation of its financial services sector following international scrutiny.

Both cases illustrate that attracting investment is only part of the equation. Managing its impact on housing, infrastructure and local communities is equally important.

What Cyprus Can Learn

Taken together, Greece and Malta demonstrate two distinct approaches to long-term economic development.

Greece is seeking to channel investment towards regions that can accommodate growth while reducing pressure on its busiest destinations. Malta has built its strategy around specialised industries, regulatory certainty and structured pathways for long-term residence.

For Cyprus, the lesson is not to replicate either model. Rather, it is to understand the trade-offs behind each approach. As competition for investment and internationally mobile residents intensifies across the Mediterranean, long-term success will depend not only on attracting people and capital, but also on ensuring growth remains sustainable for local communities.

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