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Cyprus Growth Forecast Cut For 2026 As Inflation Seen At 2.7%

The Center for Economic Studies at the University of Cyprus forecasts a slowdown in the Cypriot economy by 2026, with inflation on an upward trajectory amid intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Revised Growth Forecasts

Updated estimates show that growth projections for 2026 have been revised down by 0.6 percentage points, with a further 0.3 percentage point reduction for 2027 compared with January forecasts. These revisions follow signals of weaker demand, particularly in externally oriented service sectors, which remain sensitive to international conditions.

Geopolitical Pressures And Domestic Resilience

Pressure on the outlook is largely linked to developments in the Middle East, which continue to affect economic activity and sentiment. Data from recent months, including March, point to slower demand, increased uncertainty among businesses and consumers, and rising price pressures.

At the same time, earlier economic performance provides some support. Growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, combined with public finances and low unemployment, is expected to offset part of the impact from external shocks, including regional conflict and health-related disruptions such as dengue fever.

Rising Inflation Driven By Global Market Shifts

Inflation is projected to increase from 0.1% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026, before easing to 1.8% in 2027. Compared with earlier forecasts, this represents an upward revision of 1.9 percentage points for 2026 and 0.4 points for 2027. Higher international oil prices linked to the conflict, together with increases in domestic food prices during the first quarter of 2026, are identified as the main drivers behind the revised outlook.

Outlook In An Uncertain Environment

Copyright Law Struggles To Keep Up With AI Training

Courts Are Still Applying Old Copyright Rules To AI

AI companies train models on enormous amounts of published material, including books, articles and academic research. Whether using that content without authors’ permission violates copyright law remains unresolved.

Much of the debate centres on fair use, which allows copyrighted material to be used without permission in certain circumstances. Courts consider factors such as the purpose of the use, how much material was involved and its impact on the original market.

Anthropic Case Sets An Important Precedent

A major case involving Anthropic and a group of authors provided one of the clearest rulings so far. Judge William Alsup found that using copyrighted books to train AI models was lawful, comparing the process to people reading and studying literature before creating something new.

Anthropic was nevertheless ordered to pay $1.5 billion in a settlement. The penalty concerned books the company had obtained from illegal online libraries rather than the AI training itself.

For AI companies, that distinction could prove significant because it separates studying copyrighted material from directly copying it.

Competition Could Be The Key Issue

A case involving Thomson Reuters and Ross Intelligence offers a different perspective. A court ruled that Ross could not claim fair use after using Reuters’ copyrighted material to develop a competing AI-powered legal research platform.

The decision suggests courts may be less willing to consider AI training fair use when copyrighted content is used to build a product that directly competes with the original.

For authors, an unresolved question is whether AI-generated content should be considered competition for the works used to train these models.

The Law Has Yet To Catch Up

US copyright law predates generative AI by decades, leaving courts to apply old principles to new technology. Questions also remain over copyright protection for AI-generated works. In Thaler v. Perlmutter, a court ruled that material created entirely by AI cannot receive copyright protection.

Major AI companies remain involved in copyright litigation, and different courts could reach different conclusions. For now, there is no universal rule: the legality of AI training will depend on the circumstances of each case and how courts ultimately interpret copyright and fair use.

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