The Central Bank of Cyprus projects economic growth between 2026 and 2028, supported by private infrastructure investment and export activity. Christodoulos Patsalides presented the outlook in the bank’s 2025 annual report.
Robust Economic Forecast
The report outlines baseline projections assuming a gradual de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Growth is expected to slow from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026, before rising to 2.9% in 2027 and 3.1% in 2028. Inflation is projected to stabilize around 2% over the medium term under this scenario.
Follow THE FUTURE on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and Telegram
Inflation And Policy Outlook
Inflation is forecast at 2.7% in 2026, driven by higher energy, food, and input costs. Price growth is expected to ease to 2% in 2027 and increase slightly to 2.2% in 2028. The increase in 2028 reflects the impact of the expanded Emissions Trading System (ETS2) on fuel prices.
Infrastructure Investments And Export Drive
Christodoulos Patsalides said private infrastructure investment and export growth in services, including technology and finance, are expected to support domestic demand. Higher disposable income and labor market conditions are expected to support consumption. Tourism activity is projected to decline in 2026, with recovery expected from 2027.
Banking Sector Resilience And Governance Modernization
The banking sector reports non-performing loans at 1.6%, compared with the EU average of 1.8%. Capital and liquidity indicators remain within regulatory requirements. The Central Bank is considering changes to its governance structure, including a collective model aligned with European practices.
Outlook For Growth And Stable Labour Markets
GDP is supported by private consumption and investment, according to the report. Public finances show public debt below 60% of GDP, alongside improved credit ratings from international agencies. Unemployment is projected to stabilize at around 4.5% between 2026 and 2028, reflecting current labour market conditions. Christodoulos Patsalides, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, outlined structural reforms and policy measures aimed at maintaining price stability and supporting economic activity.







