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Cyprus Payment Fraud Rises 30% While Financial Losses Climb 66%

Introduction: Escalating Fraud In Cyprus

A recent report from the Central Bank of Cyprus reveals a marked increase in payment fraud within the country. The first half of 2025 saw a 30% rise in fraudulent transactions and a 66% surge in the overall value of fraud, reaching nearly €4 million. These alarming figures were documented in the bank’s second report on the matter, highlighting approximately 16,000 fraudulent incidents between January and June 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Cases include both unauthorized transactions and payments executed following deliberate manipulation by the payer.

Accelerated Growth Relative To The Eurozone

The report underscores that the rate of fraud escalation in Cyprus outpaces the average within the Eurozone. While the overall number of incidents across the Eurozone has remained stable at around 9 million transactions, the monetary value of fraud in the region experienced only a marginal 6% increase to €1.7 billion. Despite the sharp upward trend in Cyprus, the report notes that fraud levels remain acceptable in both absolute and relative terms compared to the broader European average.

Card Payments And Credit Transfers In Focus

Card payments continue to be the most commonly exploited method, accounting for 92% of fraudulent events. However, credit transfers have emerged as the largest source of financial damage, representing 54% of the total fraud value, which translates to losses of approximately €1.9 million. In contrast, card payment fraud accounts for 45% of the total with losses of around €1.6 million. Notably, the average fraudulent credit transfer in Cyprus reached €5,472, surpassing the national transaction average of €4,496. This positions Cyprus among the countries with the highest average fraudulent credit transfer incidents within the Eurozone.

Cross-Border Transactions And Online Payments

The analysis highlights that cross-border fraud incidents far exceed domestic ones for all payment methods. For instance, fraudulent activity in cross-border card payments is 24 times more likely than that in domestic transactions. Furthermore, while the majority of card payments occur at physical points of sale, nearly 97% of fraud incidents are associated with online transactions. Card payment fraud is predominantly driven by the theft or misappropriation of sensitive payment data, whereas credit transfer fraud often involves the deception of account holders into authorizing payments themselves.

The Imperative Of Prevention And Collaboration

The Central Bank of Cyprus emphasizes the positive impact of stringent Strong Customer Authentication (SCA) in reducing card payment fraud, while noting that human error remains the weakest link in security. In an increasingly complex economic landscape, the report calls for enhanced collaboration among payment service providers, regulatory authorities, and the public. Investments in robust security measures, advanced monitoring technologies, and comprehensive financial education are essential to fortify defenses against emerging fraud schemes.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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