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Cyprus Business Chamber Warns Bank Tax Threatens Investor Confidence

Chamber Issues Stern Warning Against Bank Tax

The Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Keve) has issued a forceful statement opposing the proposed imposition of additional taxation on banks. The chamber argues that further levies would be economically unsound and send a negative signal to international investors.

Heavy Tax Burdens And Their Impact

Keve highlighted that banks have already contributed significant tax revenues between 2017 and 2024, reporting €285 million in corporate tax and €470 million in special levies on deposits. This cumulative contribution of €755 million has supplied the state with ample resources to support borrowers and vulnerable groups, rendering any extra tax unnecessary.

Risks To Financial Stability And Investor Confidence

The chamber stressed that using taxation as a tool of social policy is inappropriate. Targeting banks, which are a key pillar of the economic framework, could undermine the predictability and stability of Cyprus’s tax and institutional environment. In a climate where investor confidence is paramount, such a strategy risks weakening the country’s credibility on the international stage.

Broader Implications For Monetary And Lending Policies

Concerns extend beyond immediate fiscal impacts. The European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that increased taxation based on customer deposits may disrupt the transmission of monetary policy, impacting credit institutions’ ability to maintain appropriate capital buffers and set competitive lending rates. Using Belgian banks as an example, the ECB noted that even well-capitalized institutions might face procyclical pressures, potentially restricting lending to households and firms.

Setting A Precedent With Lasting Consequences

In addition to domestic concerns, Keve cautions that targeting a specific sector could set a dangerous precedent. Diverging from the policy recommendations of the International Monetary Fund and the European Stability Mechanism, such a move distinguishes Cyprus from high-credit rating EU member states like Germany and the Netherlands, which do not impose extraordinary sector-specific charges.

Looking Ahead: Balancing Social Objectives With Economic Stability

While Keve supports well-targeted social support measures, it insists that these initiatives must not compromise financial stability, investor confidence, or Cyprus’s international competitiveness. The chamber further called on all businesses to contribute to society through robust corporate social responsibility programs.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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