Robust Economic Trajectory In Cyprus

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) recorded a 2.9% year‐on‐year increase in January 2026, as per the revised data from the University of Cyprus‘s Economics Research Centre (CypERC). This performance, though slightly slower than the 3.1% and 3.2% gains recorded in December and November 2025 respectively, confirms resilient economic fundamentals over the period.

Sectoral Contributions And International Influences

Key components such as temperature-adjusted electricity production, property sales contracts, tourist arrivals, and retail trade activity all posted positive year-on-year growth. In contrast, external factors such as a marked reduction in Brent crude oil prices and diverging economic sentiment indicators between Cyprus and the euro area highlight a complex external environment. While the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) across the euro area improved in January, the domestic ESI in Cyprus declined, reflecting a weakening business climate in the services and industrial sectors.

Detailed Insights Into Business And Consumer Confidence

Additional surveys outlined a slight deterioration in economic sentiment within Cyprus. The overall decline in the Economic Sentiment Indicator, notably a 0.2-point drop from December 2025, was primarily driven by reduced confidence in the construction, retail trade, and industrial sectors. Despite improvements in the Services Confidence Indicator and stable consumer confidence levels, adjustments in stock levels and revised sales expectations contributed to a softer outlook among business leaders. Construction firms, facing seasonal constraints and labor shortages, adopted a more neutral stance, while industrial players tempered expectations due to less favorable assessments of stock levels and production.

Methodology And Future Outlook

The CCLEI, designed to provide early warning signals for turning points in business cycles, derives its insights from an array of domestic and international indicators. These include tracking trends such as the Brent crude oil price in euros, property sales contracts, tourist arrivals, and credit card transaction values. The centre’s ongoing assessment, including its recent summary of business and consumer surveys, suggests that despite external geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the Cypriot economy maintains a stable growth trajectory.