Amid ongoing debates about the economic impact of inflation and wage growth, the European Commission’s latest report, After the Inflation Shock: A Review of Price and Cost Competitiveness in the EU, offers a comprehensive look at how inflation has affected member states differently. The study notes that several Central and Eastern European countries experienced sharp real price increases, which in turn weakened price competitiveness. These pressures were largely driven by higher import costs, expanding profit margins, and accelerating wages.
Inflation, Productivity, And Economic Resilience
The report highlights that in economies such as Ireland, Cyprus, and Malta, productivity growth has generally kept pace with or exceeded wage increases. This alignment has helped contain domestic labour costs per unit of output. Maintaining this balance is critical, as wage growth that significantly outstrips productivity can trigger a self-reinforcing cycle of rising costs and inflation, ultimately eroding competitiveness.
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Divergent National Trends And Their Implications
Across the EU, wage and productivity dynamics have varied widely between 2020 and 2024. In Lithuania and Croatia, inflation-adjusted wage data show that real wages rose markedly faster than productivity. Bulgaria and Romania present a more nuanced picture: while the Harmonised Consumer Price Index suggested moderate inflation, GDP-deflator adjustments indicate that wage growth was closer to productivity trends. Latvia recorded particularly strong real wage gains well above productivity improvements, whereas Slovakia and the Czech Republic continue to face noticeable mismatches between wage growth and output efficiency, each driven by different structural factors.
Inflation’s Role In Determining Competitiveness
A key takeaway of the report is that inflation alone does not automatically translate into lost competitiveness. Initial economic positioning, sector composition, and productivity trajectories play equally important roles. Although inflation gaps across EU countries have narrowed compared to the immediate post-pandemic period, several economies still face persistent price pressures. These began to accelerate again in 2025, suggesting that short-term disparities in price competitiveness may remain.
Supply-Side And Domestic Influences On Inflation
Inflation patterns within the EU have been shaped by both external shocks and domestic decisions. Central and Eastern European economies were hit hardest by import-driven cost increases, particularly in energy. In contrast, countries such as France, Greece, Italy, and Finland recorded more moderate inflation rates between 2020 and 2024. Domestic drivers also played a meaningful role, including shifts in corporate profit margins and sustained wage growth, underscoring that competitiveness cannot be assessed through inflation metrics alone.
Measured Wage Adjustments Sustain Competitiveness In Cyprus
Cyprus provides an example of a more measured approach. Wage growth has remained relatively contained while labour productivity has continued to improve. According to the Central Bank of Cyprus’ December 2025 Economic Bulletin, nominal wage expenditure rose by 4% during the first nine months of 2025, while real wages increased by 3.3%. This moderation has helped keep unit labour costs below the eurozone average and supported the country’s overall competitive position.
