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Government Fiscal Performance Q3 2025: Surplus Decline Amid Revenue Gains and Elevated Spending

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 26, 2026

Fiscal Surplus Contraction in Q3 2025

Preliminary fiscal data for the period July–September 2025 indicate that the general government recorded a surplus of €653.6 million, a decline from the €871.0 million surplus achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Detailed analysis from the Pleonasma series and related commentary on fiscal outcomes underscores the evolving economic landscape.

Revenue Enhancements

Total revenues for Q3 2025 increased by €104.2 million (+2.6%), reaching €4,099.0 million from €3,994.8 million in Q3 2024. Social contributions demonstrated robust growth, rising by €62.5 million (+5.7%) to €1,151.2 million from €1,088.7 million during the same period last year.

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Revenue gains were also observed in personal income and wealth taxation, which grew by €10.9 million (+0.8%) to €1,299.3 million compared to €1,288.4 million. Taxes on production and imports increased by €7.1 million (+0.6%), totaling €1,264.3 million; notably, net VAT revenue (after reimbursements) saw an encouraging rise of €40.2 million (+4.8%) to €886.4 million.

Other revenue segments, including receivables from property income, capital transfers, and goods and services provided, also registered modest improvements. Property income receivables climbed by €3.0 million (+13.5%), while capital transfers surged by €6.0 million to €10.8 million. Revenues from goods and services increased by €15.1 million (+6.1%) to €260.9 million. Conversely, current transfers experienced a slight contraction, decreasing by €0.4 million (-0.5%) to €87.2 million.

Escalating Expenditures

Total expenditures during the period advanced by €321.5 million (+10.3%), reaching €3,445.3 million versus €3,123.8 million in Q3 2024. Social benefits were the primary driver, with an increase of €97.8 million (+7.9%) to €1,334.6 million compared to €1,236.8 million previously.

Employee compensation—which encompasses statutory social contributions and public employee pensions—rose by €50.5 million (+5.6%), culminating at €955.6 million, up from €905.1 million. Intermediate consumption saw a moderate uptick of €4.5 million (+1.2%) to €382.0 million.

Notably, the capital account expenditures surged by €223.7 million (+84.2%) to €489.3 million, which includes €321.0 million in capital investments and €168.3 million in capital transfers, compared with €265.6 million the previous year. In contrast, payable property income contracted by €26.1 million (-25.7%) to €75.3 million, and other current expenditures fell by €16.1 million (-8.6%) to €171.2 million. Furthermore, subsidies experienced a marked reduction, dropping by €12.6 million (-25.3%) to €37.3 million from €49.9 million.

Implications for Policy and Economic Stability

The evolving fiscal indicators highlight the complex balance between revenue enhancements and growing expenditures amid changing economic conditions. The data, meticulously compiled and reported by the national statistical authority, point to significant challenges and opportunities for policymakers tasked with sustaining long-term fiscal stability.

Outlook

The detailed disaggregation of revenue and expenditure items is critical for informed decision-making in the public sector. As governments navigate the interplay of rising social contributions, evolving tax bases, and shifting capital investments, the Q3 2025 fiscal performance offers pivotal insights into the broader economic trajectory and the future direction of public finance management.

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Cyprus Summer Bookings Fall Over 30% As Hospitality Sector Seeks Support

Pre-Bookings Decline In Cyprus Tourism Sector

Cyprus tourism stakeholders reported lower pre-bookings for the summer season compared with last year. Industry representatives, including hotel associations and unions, raised the issue during a meeting with Marinos Mousiouttas, Minister of Labor, noting that cancellations have stabilised while forward bookings remain below previous levels.

External Pressures And Travel Patterns

Several factors are affecting travel demand. Higher fuel costs have contributed to increased airfare prices, influencing travellers’ choices and shifting some demand toward alternative transport such as cruises, trains, and private vehicles. At the same time, adjustments in airline schedules, including route reductions, are affecting connectivity and booking flows.

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Calls For Government Support

Against this backdrop, industry representatives requested an extension of wage subsidy schemes through April and May. They also pointed to the need for broader measures to support the sector, as early booking activity has slowed and booking patterns are shifting toward last-minute reservations. Current reservations are reported to be more than 30% lower than a year earlier, while average hotel occupancy is around 40%, compared with previous levels closer to 80%.

Coordinated Government Response And Future Prospects

Christos Angelidis, General Director of PASYXE, said Marinos Mousiouttas, Minister of Labor, acknowledged the situation and will consult with other ministers on possible coordinated measures. Angelidis added that extending wage subsidy schemes could support business continuity during the current period and help stabilise conditions in the sector.

At the same time, the government has introduced a strategic plan focused on how Cyprus is positioned internationally. The initiative, developed with Invest Cyprus, aims to align messaging across tourism and investment, with emphasis on consistency in external communication. Victor Papadopoulos, Director of the President’s Office, said the approach is intended to highlight key characteristics of the country in international markets.

Looking Ahead

Current booking data and occupancy levels indicate a slower start to the season, while demand patterns are shifting toward shorter booking windows. At the same time, discussions between industry representatives and government bodies point to potential measures aimed at supporting the sector as the season progresses.