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CEO Confidence In Revenue Growth At 5-Year Low Amid AI And Geopolitical Pressures

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 21, 2026

Global CEOs are navigating a complex landscape as confidence in revenue growth reaches a five-year low. PwC’s 2026 Global CEO Survey reveals that escalating challenges—from artificial intelligence to geopolitical and cyber threats—are compelling leaders to reassess their financial outlooks and strategic investments.

Declining Confidence In Growth Prospects

Only 30% of CEOs now express confidence in achieving revenue growth over the next 12 months, a sharp decline from 38% in 2025 and 56% in 2022. PwC Cyprus shared these insights, drawn from the responses of 4,454 CEOs across 95 countries. The findings underscore the mounting pressure on businesses to convert investments, notably in artificial intelligence, into sustainable financial returns.

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The AI Advantage And Execution Gap

The survey highlights a significant divide in how companies leverage AI. While only 12% of CEOs have witnessed AI deliver both cost and revenue advantages, 33% have seen benefits in just one of these areas, and a majority of 56% reported no significant financial impact. Firms that have embedded AI comprehensively across products, services, demand generation, and strategic decision-making are two to three times more likely to achieve tangible returns. Moreover, organizations that have established robust AI frameworks, such as Responsible AI protocols and enterprise-wide integration, are three times more likely to report meaningful financial outcomes.

Rising External Risks And Cyber Threats

The evolving global environment is intensifying external risks. CEO concern over tariffs has grown markedly, with 20% of leaders globally citing high exposure to financial losses from tariff impacts. Regional variations are stark, notably 35% in Mexico and 28% in the Chinese Mainland, while 22% of US CEOs noted similar vulnerabilities. Concurrently, cyber risk is ascending the priority list, with 31% of CEOs identifying it as a major threat—up from previous years—prompting 84% to enhance enterprise-wide cybersecurity measures.

Strategic Reinvention And Global Expansion

Despite the subdued outlook on revenue growth, many CEOs view reinvention as critical for future success. More than 42% of CEOs have ventured into new sectors in the past five years, and 44% of those planning major acquisitions intend to invest outside their current industries, with technology emerging as the most attractive adjacent sector. International expansion remains a strategic focus, with 51% of CEOs preparing for overseas investments. The United States continues to lead as a top market, followed by key regions such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and an increasing interest in India.

Balancing Urgency With Long-Term Strategy

Time pressures further complicate strategic decision-making. CEOs report spending 47% of their time on short-term issues, compared to just 16% on long-term planning exceeding five years. As Mohamed Kande articulated, “The value at stake across the global economy is increasing, and the window to capture it is narrowing.” This underscores the imperative for companies to commit to bold decisions and invest resolutely in capabilities that drive future growth.

PwC’s survey, conducted from September 30 to November 10, 2025, offers a vital overview of global business sentiment. As external risks evolve and competition intensifies, the companies best positioned for success will be those that adapt quickly while maintaining a clear focus on long-term strategic objectives.

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ILO Warns Oil Price Surge Could Trigger Global Job Losses

The International Labour Organization (ILO) has issued a stark warning: the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East is increasingly infiltrating global labor markets, posing significant risks to jobs, incomes, and working conditions. In its latest Employment and Social Trends May 2026 Update, the ILO emphasizes that the crisis is evolving from a regional security issue into a broad economic shock affecting fuel prices, supply chains, aviation, tourism, remittances, and the overall cost of doing business.

Economic Strain Extends Beyond Energy Markets

According to the report, the scale of the economic impact will depend largely on the duration and intensity of the conflict. One scenario outlined by the ILO projects oil prices rising approximately 50% above early 2026 averages. Under those conditions, global working hours could decline by 0.5% in 2026 and by 1.1% in 2027. The projected reduction would equal the loss of approximately 14 million full-time equivalent jobs in 2026 and 38 million in 2027. Real labor incomes could also decline by 1.1% in 2026 and by 3% in 2027, potentially resulting in losses totaling around $1.1 trillion and $3 trillion respectively.

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Understated Unemployment And Cascading Effects

Despite the scale of the projected disruption, unemployment levels are expected to rise more gradually. The ILO projected a 0.1 percentage point increase in global unemployment during 2026, followed by a 0.5 percentage point increase in 2027. Sangheon Lee said the broader effects are expected to emerge through reduced working hours, weaker earnings, slower hiring activity and growing pressure on temporary and informal workers. Lee described the Middle East crisis as a potentially long-term structural shock for global labor markets.

Regional Vulnerabilities And Supply Chain Risks

The report highlighted elevated risks for regions including the Arab States and Asia-Pacific due to their dependence on Gulf energy flows, trade routes and labor migration networks. Working hours across Arab States could decline by as much as 10.2% under a severe escalation scenario, according to the ILO. The organization noted that such a contraction would exceed labor market declines recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Complexities Of Transmitted Shocks And Policy Responses

The ILO said higher oil prices could trigger broader economic disruption affecting sectors including aviation, manufacturing, hospitality and construction. Migration channels and remittance flows linked to Gulf Cooperation Council countries could also weaken, increasing pressure on labor-exporting economies. Several governments have already introduced stabilization measures, including energy subsidies, direct cash support and assistance programs for businesses and migrant workers.

Strategies For Resilience In An Uncertain Future

Several governments have already introduced measures including energy subsidies, direct cash support and assistance for businesses and migrant workers. According to the ILO, however, these responses remain uneven and constrained by fiscal pressures.

Policy responses should focus on protecting jobs and incomes, particularly for vulnerable groups including informal workers, migrants, refugees and small businesses, the organization said. Growing geopolitical instability is also increasingly capable of triggering broader economic and labor market disruption far beyond the regions directly involved in conflict, according to the ILO.