Goldman Sachs Predicts Lower Oil Prices Amid Global Supply Surplus And Geopolitical Volatility

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 13, 2026

Market Surplus Drives New Dynamics

Goldman Sachs has signaled that oil prices are expected to decline later this year as a significant supply surplus takes shape. The investment bank maintained its 2026 average forecast at $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), predicting a price bottom at $54 on Brent and $50 on WTI during the last quarter as OECD inventories expand.

Geopolitical Tensions Propel Volatility

Despite the anticipated surplus, ongoing geopolitical risks associated with Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are likely to inject volatility into the markets. The interplay between supply abundance and enduring political uncertainties underscores the complex global energy landscape, forcing investors and policymakers alike to navigate these challenges carefully.

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Policy Focus and Implications for Investors

Brent crude futures were reported around $63 a barrel, with U.S. WTI crude at $59, as of recent trading sessions. This follows a year marked by nearly a 20% decline in both benchmarks, the worst performance since 2020. Analysts note that U.S. policymakers remain committed to ensuring robust energy supplies and keeping prices relatively modest, a stance that is expected to temper further price increases before the midterm elections.

Outlook Through 2027 and Beyond

Goldman Sachs anticipates a gradual recovery in oil prices in 2027, projecting average prices of $58 for Brent and $54 for WTI. This revision comes on the back of modest upward adjustments in U.S., Venezuelan, and Russian supply estimates. Looking further ahead, the bank forecasts a substantial recovery later in the decade as demand picks up through 2040, with projections of $75 and $71 for Brent and WTI respectively between 2030 and 2035.

Strategic Recommendations

Given these market conditions, Goldman Sachs recommends that investors consider shorting the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent time-spread to articulate a view of the surplus. Additionally, the bank suggests that oil producers hedge against the potential downside in 2026 prices.

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EU Farm Output Prices Decline For The First Time In Nine Months

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 12, 2026

EU Market Adjustments Signal New Price Trends

Agricultural output prices across the European Union declined in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a shift after several quarters of increases. Data from Eurostat shows that farm gate prices fell by 1.9% compared with the same period in 2024.

Crisis of Declining Prices In Select Markets

Cyprus recorded one of the more notable decreases in agricultural input costs among EU member states, with prices falling by 2.6% compared with Q4 2024. The reduction eased cost pressures for the local agricultural sector following periods of higher prices earlier in 2025. Across the EU, prices for goods and services consumed in agriculture remained relatively stable. Non-investment inputs such as energy, fertilisers and feedingstuffs showed limited overall changes during the quarter.

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Country-Specific Divergence In Price Movements

Eurostat data highlights considerable variation across member states. Fifteen EU countries recorded declines in agricultural output prices. Belgium registered the largest decrease at 12.9%, followed by Lithuania (8.2%) and Germany (6.0%). At the same time, twelve countries reported increases in output prices. Ireland recorded the strongest rise at 6.8%, followed by Slovenia (5.6%) and Malta (4.2%).

Stability In Agricultural Inputs Amid Commodity Shifts

Agricultural input prices also showed mixed developments. Eleven member states recorded declines, including Cyprus (2.6%), Belgium (2.1%) and Sweden (2.0%). Other countries experienced moderate increases, including Lithuania (4.2%), Ireland (3.3%) and Romania (2.5%). Among major agricultural commodities, milk prices declined by 4.1% while cereal prices fell by 8.9% across the EU. In contrast, fertilisers and soil improvers increased by 7.9%, reflecting continued volatility in input markets.

Outlook For EU Agriculture

The latest Eurostat data points to uneven price developments across the EU agricultural sector. While input prices remained broadly stable in many markets, movements in output prices varied significantly between member states. These trends highlight the need for farmers and policymakers to adapt to shifting commodity prices and changing cost structures across the European agricultural market.

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