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ECB To Maintain Interest Rates As Economy Exhibits Resilience

Steady Policy Amid Subdued Inflation

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged during its December 18 meeting and maintain this stance through next year. This decision comes as inflation remains near the bank’s 2% target and economic growth shows unexpected strength.

Data-Driven Decisions

Recent reports indicate that Euro zone inflation edged up to 2.2% in November from 2.1% in October, yet has largely stayed anchored around the ECB’s target this year. Economic performance has averaged a growth rate of nearly 1.5% over the past two quarters, giving policymakers little reason to alter current rates following a previous cut of two percentage points.

Consensus Among Experts

All 96 economists surveyed by Reuters from December 5-10 agree that the deposit rate will hold at 2% at the upcoming meeting. A robust majority – approximately 80% – expect that rates will remain steady through mid-2026, a view that has grown more pronounced compared to previous surveys.

Insights From Market Strategists

Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank (Rabobank), remarked, “The economy has been more resilient than we had anticipated. With inflation at target levels, there is currently no pressing need to adjust interest rates.” Similarly, ECB President Christine Lagarde has noted that the economy’s robust performance amidst global uncertainty may lead to upward revisions of growth projections, though monetary policy remains in a favorable position.

Looking Ahead

Market sentiment is reflected in interest rate futures, which now almost entirely discount further easing until mid-2026. Median forecasts suggest that inflation will dip to 2.1% this quarter and fall further to 1.7% in early 2026, remaining below the ECB’s target. While some analysts anticipate the possibility of rate cuts in response to any significant negative shocks, the prevailing view points towards stability with a reduced likelihood of hikes.

Risks and Projections

Fabio Balboni, Senior European Economist at HSBC (HSBC), highlighted that downside risks remain, noting that labor market trends and subdued stimulus effects in Germany could impact growth. With expectations for economic growth at 1.4% this year and 1.1% in 2026, the potential for rate cuts in 2026 has been acknowledged should the economic landscape change significantly.

Women Make Up A Majority Of The EU’s Science And Technology Workforce But The Real Gap Is Elsewhere

Women now make up the majority of the EU’s science and technology workforce. According to Eurostat, in 2025, more than 81.6 million people aged 15 to 74 were employed in science and technology occupations across the EU. Of those, 52.5% were women, equal to 42.8 million women. The number of women in these occupations rose by 27.9% compared with 2015, an increase of more than 9.3 million over a decade.

On the surface, the numbers resemble progress. However, Eurostat’s category requires context before that figure can be read accurately. The data refers to HRST, or Human Resources in Science and Technology, specifically people employed in science and technology occupations. These are roles where the main tasks require professional or technical knowledge in physical and life sciences, but also in social sciences and humanities. That definition is wider and broader than engineering, ICT, laboratory science, or high-tech research alone.

Zooming In

The gender picture changes once the data moves from a wider definition of the workforce to the narrower scientist-and-engineer (research and manufacturing) subgroup.

Scientists and engineers represented almost a quarter of all people employed in science and technology in the EU in 2025. Eurostat describes scientists and engineers as often being the innovators at the centre of technology-led development, making them an important subgroup to focus on separately.

Women accounted for only 40.8% of scientists and engineers in 2025, despite making up more than half of the wider category. That share has increased by a mere 0.5 percentage points over the past decade. The absolute number of women working as scientists and engineers rose from 5.3 million in 2015 to 8.2 million in 2025, despite the push from national and international organisations to increase the number of women in the field. Europe has expanded the number of women in science and technology occupations over ten years. However, that expansion has not extended equally into the scientist-and-engineer subgroup, where much of Europe’s research and innovation work is conducted.

In 2025, of the 39.4 million women aged 25 to 64 working in science and technology occupations in the EU, 35.5 million worked in service activities. Only 2.7 million worked in manufacturing. Women accounted for 57.5% of science and technology employment in services, but only 31.3% in manufacturing.

In 2025, the highest shares of women employed in science and technology occupations were recorded in Latvia at 62.4%, followed by Hungary’s Great Plain and North region at 61.1%, Estonia at 60.5%, Poland’s Central macroregion at 60.4%, and Lithuania at 60.3%. No EU country recorded a majority of women among science and technology workers in manufacturing.

Break-down

Eurostat’s figures measure employment in broad science and technology occupations. They do not show job security, pay levels, management roles, promotion rates, research leadership, or whether women are concentrated in junior or senior workplace positions.

The classification of “senior” also requires additional explanation. Eurostat reports that 45.9% of science and technology workers aged 25 to 64 in the EU were classified as “senior” HRST in 2025. In this dataset, “senior” refers to workers aged 45 to 64. It does not mean senior manager, senior researcher, team lead, or decision-maker.

A high female share in the wider Human Resource Science and Technology (HRST) category does not parallel equal representation across scientists, engineers, manufacturing roles, senior posts, pay, research funding, or decision-making. These figures also reflect the occupational mix inside each country or region, not only structural progress across all areas of science and technology.

The Case Of Cyprus

Eurostat data places Cyprus’s overall science and technology employment at 37.2% of the labour force in 2025, slightly above the EU-27 figure of 36.9%, and above Greece at 26.8%, Malta at 33.9%, and Turkey at 18.2%. This figure covers the total share of the labour force employed in science and technology across all genders.

Progress Or Work-in-Progress?

52.5% in the broad category. 40.8% among scientists and engineers. 31.3% in manufacturing. Europe’s gender gap in science and technology hasn’t closed yet, and there is still work to be done to encourage and support more women to enter the field, especially in research and manufacturing.

Let’s not wait another decade for another couple of percentage points of hope.

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