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Tax Reform Breakthrough In Cyprus: A Strategic Win-Win For Government And Coalition Parties

Government Secures Majority While Coalition Parties Reap Political Benefits

Yesterday’s agreement between Finance Minister Makis Keravnos and the coalition parties—representing DIKO, DISY, and DIAPA—has been hailed as a win-win solution for all stakeholders. The government has ensured the required parliamentary majority to swiftly pass a tax reform package that largely meets its criteria, while the coalition members have seized the opportunity to introduce tailored modifications that benefit tens of thousands of citizens. This strategic move, coming at a critical juncture in the pre-election campaign, marks the second major government reshuffle and appointment of seasoned figures, excluding EDEK.

Key Reforms And Financial Implications

According to reports, the reform is slated to take effect on January 1, 2026. The most significant changes will be incorporated via party amendments rather than separate government-proposed bills. The only immediate change on the government’s side will be an increase in tax relief for certain families—from incomes up to €80,000 to incomes up to €90,000—accordingly reducing the fiscal burden by an estimated €110 million annually.

Principal Amendments In The Reform Package

  • Enhanced Tax-Free Threshold: The exemption will rise from the current €19,500 to €22,000, with an intermediate proposal of €20,500 already on the government’s agenda. This adjustment represents an additional €1,500 per taxpayer, creating a projected extra cost of €45 million to the state.
  • Increased Income Caps For Family Tax Relief: The thresholds for annual family income qualifying for tax deductions will be raised incrementally. For instance, a family with one child will now be eligible for deductions up to €90,000; for two children, the limit rises to €100,000, with higher thresholds delineated for larger families.
  • Augmented Tax Deductions For Dependents: The tax relief for children and students (up to age 23 for women and 24 for men) will be calculated on a graduated scale. Families with one child retain a €1,000 deduction, while those with two or more benefit from progressively increased deductions up to €1,500 per child when the family has three or more children.
  • Boost in Interest Deductions: The deduction for interest on mortgage loans and rental payments will be raised to €2,000 from the originally proposed €1,500, whereas the green investment incentive remains at €1,000.
  • Revised Tax Brackets: The proposal outlines new tax rates as follows: 20% for incomes between €22,001 and €32,000; 25% for incomes from €32,001 to €42,000; 30% for incomes between €42,001 and €72,000; and 35% for earnings exceeding €72,001. Additional party amendments aim to meet the pre-election promise of increasing the tax exemption to €24,000 and abolishing the stamp duty, which currently generates €35 million compared to the €20 million planned in the government proposal.

Measures To Curb Tax Evasion And Ensure Fiscal Discipline

The Finance Ministry has stipulated that any amendments must not dilute the stringent measures against tax evasion and abusive practices embedded in the reform package. The proposals already include several safeguards such as strict controls over businesses with outstanding tax liabilities and new mechanisms to secure revenue against defaults.

Political Endorsement And Coalition Consensus

In a recent statement, Finance Minister Makis Keravnos confirmed the ministry’s acceptance of the revised non-taxable thresholds and graduated income criteria. He noted, “For families with five or more children, the upper income limit for tax relief increases significantly, reaching up to €200,000.”

Christiana Erotokritou, President of the Economic Committee at DIKO, praised the minister’s openness to the coalition’s amendments. She emphasized that DIKO is committed to achieving consensus and collaboration on economic issues to maintain Cyprus as an attractive hub for business.

Similarly, DISY’s Onurphios Koullas stressed the importance of a parliamentary majority and governmental consensus in ensuring a positive outcome for the nation’s economy, while DIAPA’s Alekos Tryfonidis highlighted that the reforms are designed to benefit low-income earners, the middle class, and small businesses within the established fiscal framework.

Mixed Reactions And Continuing Debate

Despite the overwhelming support from the coalition, some parliamentary parties expressed surprise and dismay at their exclusion from the meeting, arguing that similar proposals had been under consideration. Criticism also came from representatives such as SoTiris Ioannou from ELAM, who noted that proposals for incremental increases in family income thresholds and tax credits were submitted as early as last September. Environmental advocate Stavros Papadouris also criticized the selective attendance at the meeting, suggesting that several proposals originated from his own movement.

According to sources in the Finance Ministry, the meeting was initiated not by the minister but by the participating coalition parties, underscoring the dynamic interplay of political negotiation in the nation’s tax reform process.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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