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Industrial Turnover Index In Cyprus: Resilient Growth Across Key Sectors

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

The latest figures from the Statistical Service of Cyprus (Cystat) underscore robust economic momentum, with the industrial turnover index rising to 151.8 units in September 2025—a 5.6% increase on the comparable month in 2024.

Overview Of Economic Activity

For the January to September 2025 period, the overall index improved by 4.2% when compared with the same timeframe last year. Local turnover posted a 5.9% rise, whereas export turnover advanced by 4.1%, reflecting balanced domestic and international market performance.

Strong Performance In Manufacturing And Mining

Within the manufacturing sector, the index reached 143.4 units in September, registering an impressive annual gain of 9.6%. This robust performance was paralleled by an 8.5% rise in mining and quarrying activity. Sector-specific trends further demonstrate this momentum, as evidenced by the notable advances in:

  • Electronic and Optical Products and Electrical Equipment: up 36.4%
  • Machinery, Motor Vehicles and Other Transport Equipment: up 20.8%
  • Basic Metals, Fabricated Metal Products, Furniture, and Machinery Installation: over 21%
  • Wood And Cork Products: up 17.9%
  • Rubber, Plastic Products And Other Non-metallic Mineral Products: mid-range increases between 8.1% and 8.6%

Sectoral Challenges And Variations

Despite these advancements, certain sectors registered declines. Electricity supply experienced a 6% drop in September and an 8.8% fall for the January–September period, while water supply and materials recovery exhibited marginal degressions of 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively. Additionally, traditional segments such as textiles, wearing apparel, and leather products fell by 8.6%, with refined petroleum, chemicals, and pharmaceutical products declining by 8.9%.

Methodology And Data Collection Insight

The industrial turnover index is underpinned by systematic data collection from enterprises with turnover exceeding €2 million or employing 20 or more personnel; smaller enterprises are included via sampling methodologies. With 2021 as the base year—where the monthly average index is 100.0—the index offers a transparent measure of turnover shifts across the industrial spectrum. Data is typically collected by telephone or email within two months following the end of each reference period.

This comprehensive report not only outlines key growth areas within Cyprus’s industrial landscape but also provides critical insights for policymakers and investors eyeing long-term trends in the region.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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