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France Records First Agri-Food Trade Deficit In 50 Years Amid Shifting Global Dynamics

France, renowned as the European Union’s leading agricultural powerhouse, now confronts a stark reversal in its trade fortunes. Recent customs data reveals that the nation has recorded its first annual trade deficit in food and farm products in nearly half a century. New tariffs on wine exports, coupled with soaring costs for cocoa and coffee imports, have exacerbated an ongoing decline in international competitiveness.

Eroding Competitive Edge

Historically, France’s agri-food sector has been instrumental in driving export revenues, leveraging the country’s vast agricultural base. However, intensified competition both within and outside the European Union has diminished its market share. The impact of these headwinds is underscored by the significant drop in the food and farm products surplus—from a 4.9 billion euro surplus recorded last year, following a poor grain harvest, to a cumulative deficit of 351 million euros for January through September of this year.

Insights From Industry Leaders

Economist Thierry Pouch of France’s Association of Chambers of Agriculture observed, “It’s a pretty big shock to see how foreign trade has dwindled month by month this year.” This sentiment reflects a broader concern among industry experts who warn that French producers are burdened by red tape and high costs. Pouch emphasized the need for France to rethink its strategy and draw lessons from competitors such as Spain, which has successfully bolstered its agri-food export efforts.

Partial Harvest Revival Insufficient

A notably improved cereal harvest in recent months has marginally revived exports, yet it has not sufficed to reverse the overall trend. Persisting headwinds—including temporary factors like the price volatility of imported cocoa and coffee, alongside the impact of US and Chinese tariffs on wine and spirit exports—continue to weigh heavily on France’s international trade balance.

Looking Ahead: Strategic Adjustments Needed

As the agri-food deficit deepens, there is a clear mandate for strategic innovation. Jean-Paul Torris, international adviser at the food industry association ANIA, stresses that a more proactive export strategy is crucial. He points to the exemplary marketing initiatives undertaken by neighbors such as Italy and Spain as benchmarks for revitalizing France’s agri-food trade relations on a global scale.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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