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Cyprus Economic Growth Outlook: 3.5% Expansion in 2025 With Steady Development in 2026

New projections for the Cyprus economy indicate a growth rate of 3.5% in 2025, slightly down from 3.9% in 2024, with expectations of stabilization throughout 2026. These figures, revised upward by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to the July outlook, reflect a marked improvement in both domestic and international economic conditions.

Positive Developments And Improved Outlook

Domestically, a marked easing of inflation, strengthened economic confidence, and increased new loans driven by lower interest rates are contributing robustly to economic dynamics. Internationally, reduced trade uncertainty and decreased market volatility in the third quarter of 2025 further bolster growth prospects compared to the previous quarter.

Risks To Lower Growth

Despite these optimistic projections, significant downward risks persist. The external environment remains a concern as key trading partners may experience slower-than-expected growth amid subdued confidence indicators. Additionally, upward pressures on public spending, extreme weather events linked to climate change, and escalating geopolitical tensions could potentially impede economic momentum in Cyprus.

Inflation: Decline In 2025, Recovery In 2026

According to the Consumer Price Index, inflation is projected to decline to 0.3% in 2025, down from 1.8% in 2024, before rebounding to 2.0% in 2026. The downward revision for 2025, decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared to the July forecast, is attributed to lower inflation rates in the third quarter and a drop in international oil prices. In contrast, the upward revision for 2026 (+0.5 percentage points) is tied to the country’s strong economic performance during the initial three quarters of 2025, as reflected in quarterly and monthly data.

Central Bank Of Cyprus Balance Sheet Reflects Strong Eurosystem Position

Overview Of Financial Stability

The Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) has released its latest balance sheet, reaffirming its steadfast role within the Eurosystem. The balance sheet, featuring total assets and liabilities of €29.545 billion, underscores the institution’s stable financial posture at the close of January 2026.

Asset Allocation And Strategic Holdings

Governor Christodoulos Patsalides issued the balance sheet, which details the CBC’s asset composition under the Eurosystem framework. Notably, the bank’s gold and gold receivables amounted to €1.635 billion, providing a significant hedge and stability to its balance sheet. Additional asset categories include claims on non-euro area residents denominated in foreign currency at €1.099 billion, while claims on euro area residents in both foreign and domestic currency add further depth to its portfolio.

The most substantial asset category, intra-Eurosystem claims, reached €19.438 billion, an indication of the CBC’s deep integration with its European counterparts. Furthermore, euro-denominated securities held by euro area residents contributed €6.587 billion. Despite a marked emphasis on these areas, lending to euro area credit institutions in monetary policy operations recorded no activity during the period.

Liability Structure And Monetary Policy Implications

On the liabilities side, banknotes in circulation contributed €3.218 billion. Liabilities to euro area credit institutions associated with monetary policy operations were notably the largest single category, totaling €17.636 billion. Supplementary liabilities included those to other euro area residents, which aggregated to €4.989 billion, with government liabilities playing a predominant role at €4.754 billion.

Other liability items, such as claims related to special drawing rights allocated by the International Monetary Fund at €494.193 million, and provisions of €596.571 million, further articulate the CBC’s exposure. Revaluation accounts stood at €1.643 billion, and overall capital and reserves were confirmed at €333.822 million, completing the picture of a well-capitalized institution.

Conclusive Insights And Strategic Alignment

The detailed breakdown illustrates the CBC’s sizeable intra-Eurosystem exposures, reinforcing its central role within Europe’s monetary landscape. With an asset-liability balance maintained at €29.545 billion, the CBC’s financial position remains robust, indicating a commitment to structural stability and strategic risk management.

This fiscal disclosure not only provides transparency into the CBC’s operations but also serves as a benchmark for comparative analysis among other central banks within the Eurosystem, highlighting the intricate balance between asset liquidity, regulatory oversight, and monetary policy imperatives.

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