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Cyprus Achieves Impressive Fiscal Surplus In 2024 Amid Strengthened Public Finances

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Robust Fiscal Performance Backed By European Validation

Cyprus recorded a fiscal surplus of €1.44 billion for 2024—equating to 4.1% of GDP—while its public debt stands at €21.83 billion (62.8% of GDP), according to CYSTAT. These figures have been meticulously verified under the European Commission’s Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), reinforcing the marked improvement in the nation’s public finances.

Revenue Growth Driven By Strong Tax Collection

Total state revenues increased by €1.01 billion (7.4%) to reach €14.75 billion. The principal contributors to this surge were:

  • Income And Wealth Taxes: Up by €539.8 million (16.5%), totaling €3.80 billion
  • Production And Import Duties: Up by €227.8 million (5.1%), reaching €4.68 billion, with net VAT revenues increasing by €190.8 million (6.4%) to €3.17 billion
  • Social Contributions: Increased by €139.5 million (3.2%) to €4.52 billion
  • Service Revenues: Up by €52.3 million (6.2%)
  • Capital Transfers: Increased by €40.2 million (13.5%)

Only property income registered a decline of 10.8%, falling to €122.9 million.

Expenditure Adjustments Reflect Fiscal Discipline

Public expenditures experienced a modest increase of €127.3 million (1%), reaching €13.31 billion. Key spending areas with notable adjustments include:

  • Social Benefits: Increased by €365.1 million (7.4%) to €5.30 billion
  • Staff Remuneration: Up by €257.8 million (7.1%) to €3.88 billion
  • Intermediate Consumption (Operational Expenses): Increased by €110.1 million (8.1%)
  • Interest Payments And Property Income: Up by €36.7 million (9.2%)

Conversely, significant reductions were noted in other areas:

  • Other Current Expenditures: Decreased by €271.1 million (24.3%)
  • Capital Expenditures (Investments And Transfers): Fell by €372 million (23.6%) to €1.20 billion

Implications For Cyprus’s Fiscal Outlook

The fiscal results underscore Cyprus’s robust surplus position and the continued downward trend in public debt, which remains below critical thresholds as defined by post-Maastricht parameters. With the European Commission’s endorsement of these figures, the nation’s fiscal reliability is further solidified. This disciplined fiscal management not only enhances investor confidence but also positions Cyprus as a resilient player in an increasingly competitive economic landscape.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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