Nuclear power is set to reach unprecedented levels in 2025, expected to contribute nearly 10% of the world’s electricity. As the global energy map shifts, China is poised to take center stage in the nuclear sector, surpassing traditional leaders like the United States and France, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Key Highlights
The global nuclear landscape is undergoing a dramatic transformation, with over 70 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity under construction – one of the highest volumes in three decades. The IEA’s report, “The Road to a New Era for Nuclear Energy,” reveals that nuclear electricity production reached 2,742 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023, and is set to climb to 2,900 TWh in 2025. This surge is largely driven by the electrification of industries, air conditioning needs, and the rapid rise of electric vehicles and data centers powering artificial intelligence.
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As of 2023, more than 410 nuclear reactors were operational across 30+ countries, marking a significant shift in energy generation on a global scale.
A New Nuclear Era
“We are entering a new era for nuclear energy,” says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, noting that by 2025, nuclear power generation will hit its highest level in history. This recovery marks a sharp contrast to the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, which led to a sharp decline in nuclear energy investment. The rebound is being led by China, which has started 25 of the 52 nuclear reactor projects globally since 2017.
In contrast, nations like the US and France have seen a slowdown in nuclear development, primarily due to the sky-high costs associated with plant construction. As Birol points out, “The global geography of nuclear power is shifting,” with China set to surpass both the US and Europe in nuclear energy production within five years.
Europe And The US Struggling To Keep Up
Historically, the US and Europe have been nuclear powerhouses. However, nuclear energy’s share of electricity production has dropped significantly in these regions. In Europe, nuclear’s contribution has fallen from 35% in the 1990s to under 25% today, and the IEA predicts it could drop below 15% in the next decade. The US faces a similar decline. The slow pace of nuclear project completion and skyrocketing costs, now 2.5 times the initial projections, have hampered efforts to keep up with China’s rapid expansion.
Concentration Of Power
Another significant challenge facing the nuclear sector is the concentration of supply chains. Over 99% of the global uranium enrichment capacity is controlled by just four players: China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), Russia’s Rosatom, the Urenco consortium, and France’s Orano. This consolidation of power, especially Russia’s control of 40% of the market, raises concerns about the geopolitical risks surrounding nuclear energy.
The Rise Of Small Modular Reactors
Despite these hurdles, the nuclear industry is adapting. One promising development is the rise of small modular reactors (SMRs). These compact, versatile units are gaining traction worldwide – from China to Europe, the US, and Canada. Birol forecasts that within 15 years, the cost of SMRs will be competitive with large-scale wind and hydro projects. These smaller reactors are especially appealing to tech companies and industries reliant on uninterrupted, 24/7 electricity, such as those powering AI and data centers.
Looking Ahead
The IEA outlines three potential scenarios for the future, each predicting significant growth in nuclear capacity. By 2050, global nuclear power could increase by more than 50%, reaching nearly 650 gigawatts (GW), or even double with the right government support.
Since 1971, nuclear energy has prevented the release of 72 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions, underscoring its role in reducing reliance on fossil fuels. While the lion’s share of progress toward net-zero emissions will come from renewables like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy, Birol stresses that nuclear energy will be a key component of a balanced, sustainable energy strategy.
