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Where in Europe Will House Prices Rise the Most in 2025?

House prices across Europe are set to continue climbing in 2025, propelled by an ongoing supply-demand imbalance. While most countries will see growth, France stands out as an exception, with prices expected to dip temporarily due to affordability issues and political uncertainties. Fitch Ratings’ housing and mortgage outlook for 2025 predicts that nominal home prices will rise in the low to mid-single digits in most countries over the next two years.

Top European Markets to Watch

  • Netherlands: House price growth is projected to slow from the current 13% to 8%-10% in 2025, and 6%-8% in 2026. This still represents one of the fastest growth rates globally, driven by a limited housing supply due to rising material and labour costs. Population growth and shrinking household sizes further fuel demand. Government programmes aimed at supporting first-time buyers could also boost the market, although tighter fiscal policies may temper purchasing power.
  • Spain: House prices are expected to increase by 4%-6% in 2025 compared to 2024, with further growth of 5%-7% anticipated in 2026. Falling interest rates and improving consumer confidence are key drivers, while the housing shortage remains acute, with new construction meeting only half the needs of new household formations.
  • Germany: Modest growth of 2%-4% is forecast for both 2025 and 2026, up from Fitch’s estimate of 1.5% for 2024. Rising rents are making homeownership increasingly attractive, despite moderate wage growth limiting affordability.
  • UK: House prices are predicted to grow by 2%-4% in 2025 and 2026. Declining mortgage rates and strong labour market conditions will support the market, with lenders pricing in policy rates reaching 3.5% in 2025.
  • Denmark: Similar to the UK, house prices in Denmark are expected to rise by 2%-4% in 2025 and 2026, driven by lower interest rates and moderate growth in disposable income.
  • Italy: Slower growth of 0.5%-2.5% is expected in 2025 and 2026. High mortgage rates are dampening demand, while most transactions involve older properties rather than new builds, contributing to limited price increases.
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Key Drivers of Price Growth

  1. Limited Supply: High land, labour, and material costs, along with regulatory barriers, are restricting new housing developments in most markets.
  2. Improved Economic Conditions: Low unemployment, real wage growth, and easing inflation are leaving consumers with more disposable income, driving demand.
  3. Falling Mortgage Rates: Fitch Ratings expects mortgage rates to decline to around 2.5% over the next two years, which will enhance affordability for buyers.

Market Exceptions and Challenges

  • France: House prices are expected to decline in 2025 due to strained affordability and political uncertainties. However, the pace of decline will slow compared to 2024, and prices are projected to rebound in 2026 as the market stabilises.
  • Climate and Regulatory Concerns: Flood risks and EU regulations promoting sustainable construction practices could influence market dynamics, increasing costs while boosting demand for energy-efficient homes.

Global Perspective and Risks

Globally, the strongest home price growth is forecast in the Netherlands, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. In these markets, factors such as government programmes for first-time buyers and rising construction costs are key drivers.

Despite the expected growth, Fitch warns that unexpected economic challenges, such as higher-than-expected inflation or weaker household income, could disrupt these trends. Rising property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs may also deter potential buyers.

Europe’s housing market in 2025 will be shaped by the interplay of supply constraints, economic conditions, and regulatory factors. For buyers, investors, and policymakers, staying attuned to these trends will be crucial in navigating an increasingly competitive landscape.

Cyberattacks On Governments, Infrastructure And Businesses Shape 2026

Cybersecurity has become an increasingly prominent issue in 2026 as cyber incidents continue to affect governments, businesses and critical infrastructure worldwide. Recent attacks have targeted sectors ranging from healthcare and education to energy and public administration, highlighting the growing impact of cyber threats on economic activity and national security.

Questions Remain Over DOGE’s Access To Social Security Data

More than a year after individuals linked to the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) gained access to systems at the Social Security Administration, questions remain about how sensitive data was handled. Court proceedings are ongoing following allegations that a copy of the Social Security database was transferred to an external server, potentially exposing personal information belonging to millions of Americans.

According to legal filings, the Social Security Administration has acknowledged uncertainty regarding the contents of the server. Lawmakers have warned that, if confirmed, the incident could rank among the largest data breaches involving government records in U.S. history.

Hackers Increasingly Target Water Systems And Energy Grids

Cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure have continued across Europe, including incidents affecting energy networks and water systems. Authorities in Poland, Sweden and Norway have reported attacks linked to groups believed to be acting in support of Russian interests. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have heightened concerns about cyber threats to critical infrastructure, particularly privately operated utilities with limited cybersecurity resources.

Iranian Government Hackers Target Stryker

In March, Iranian hackers reportedly carried out a cyberattack against medical technology company Stryker, wiping thousands of employee devices. The incident, attributed to a group linked to Iranian intelligence, disrupted operations and affected the company’s first-quarter financial performance.

Instructure Among Shinyhunters’ Disruptive Hacking Campaigns

The hacking group ShinyHunters has continued to rely on voice phishing techniques to gain access to corporate networks. One of the most prominent incidents involved education technology company Instructure, whose Canvas learning management platform was breached.

The attack exposed personal information belonging to more than 30 million users and disrupted academic schedules during examination periods. Other reported victims include Charter, Carnival and organisations operating in the finance and public sectors.

Supply Chain Attacks Continue To Target Technology Companies

Software supply chains have remained a major target for cybercriminals. Security researchers have linked a series of attacks to compromises involving tools and platforms used by software developers, including Aqua Security’s Trivy, Bitwarden and Checkmarx. Such incidents can have wider consequences across the technology industry because compromised software updates may provide attackers with access to credentials and internal systems.

FBI Reports Major Cyber Incident

The Federal Bureau of Investigation was compelled to declare a “major cyber incident” in April after one of its surveillance systems was breached by actors believed to be linked to Chinese intelligence. This breach, which reportedly exposed the phone numbers of individuals under surveillance, has raised serious concerns about national security and the integrity of federal surveillance operations.

Hasbro Faces Operational Disruptions Following Cyberattack

Toy manufacturer Hasbro experienced weeks of operational disruption after detecting a cyberattack in late March. The company reported website outages and other operational challenges before confirming in May that the attackers had been removed from affected systems. Regulatory filing delays and other business impacts are expected to continue in the near term.

Millions Of Identity Documents Exposed

Several data exposure incidents reported during the year affected systems used for identity verification and customer onboarding. Cases involving a hotel check-in platform, a money transfer service, a prison communications provider and a UK visa portal exposed passports, driver’s licences and other identification documents belonging to more than two million people. The incidents have raised concerns about the security of personal information collected as part of identity verification requirements.

Growing Focus On Cybersecurity

The incidents reported throughout 2026 demonstrate the increasing impact of cyber threats across both public and private sectors. As organisations continue investing in digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence, cybersecurity remains a central concern for governments, businesses and critical service providers.

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